150,000 church-going Protestants did not vote at last year’s Westminster general election
John Coulter writing in Tribune Magazine says that religion is going to be a factor in the elections in the Republic and Northern Ireland. Due to the travails of the Roman Catholic church, he expects Sinn Fein to make impact in the Republic, and in Northern Ireland the key will be to overcome voter apathy in the Protestant community. He writes:
In the Republic of Ireland, the battle for the 31st Dail later this month is perhaps most likely to produce a coalition of the centre-right Fine Gael and the Irish Labour Party. However, if Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams is in a position to march into Leinster House with 20-plus TDs, that would go a long way to ensuring them an influential role in southern Irish politics.
Such an achievement could not be dismissed as merely a protest vote against outgoing Taioseach Brian Cowen’s Fianna Fail coalition. It would be a strong indicator that Sinn Fein has successfully recalibrated its economic policy. The party has adopted a sensible socialist approach and worked tirelessly to counter the view that it is a hard left revolutionary movement. It is adopting the same approach to Northern Ireland’s May 5 elections – for the Stormont Assembly and 26 local councils.
Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party, its partner in the current Northern Ireland coalition, have gained power and are likely to keep it by adopting the policies and taking the votes of more moderate nationalism and unionism. When the Northern Assembly was created in 1998 following the Good Friday Agreement, the leading forces in Irish nationalism and unionism were the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists respectively. Now the once hardline parties have supplanted them to run a fairly stable, partnership government.
Sinn Fein used to be the unapologetic political mouthpiece of the Provisional IRA. In the past, the DUP has been linked to Protestant paramilitary groups, such as the Third Force and Ulster Resistance. But the onetime extremists are now firmly entrenched in the centre ground. No longer heard are the sort of “ Never, never, never” speeches in which DUP founder Ian Paisley used to specialise. In one of the great ironies of Irish politics, Paisley and Robinson have subsequently moved further to the left in their relations with Dublin and even with Sinn Fein than any previous Ulster Unionist leader.
Sinn Fein, too, has shifted significantly towards the centre. Gone is the Armalite and ballot box strategy – a rifle in one hand and a ballot paper in the other. It now holds ministerial posts in a partitionist parliament and works closely with the DUP, a party which once campaigned using the slogan “Smash Sinn Fein”.
A strong showing for Sinn Fein in Republic of Ireland election might convince moderate middle-class nationalists in the north to abandon the SDLP and opt for Sinn Fein as the party best placed to top the poll in May and lay claim to the First Minister’s post. The DUP is playing a similar card among Unionist supporters, to the detriment of the UUP.
While there has been much talk about support for dissident republicans and anti-power-sharing Unionists, the political representatives of these factions seem to be focusing on building bases on local councils. Should they make headway, the Assembly poll of 2015 could be the one at which they make their presence felt at a regional level.
The religious vote will be a significant factor. Many Unionist voters have become apathetic because of Protestant infighting. Around 150,000 church-going Protestants did not vote at last year’s Westminster general election. The DUP must sell the message that it is Protestants’ duty to vote.
Many Irish Catholics are disillusioned because of the recent paedophile priests’ scandal. Sinn Fein has always had a fractious relationship with the leadership of the Roman Catholic Church in Ireland, especially during the Troubles. The party could now capitalise on this and ask for further investigations into allegations of clerical child abuse. If Sinn Fein can deliver justice for the victims rather than be seen as part of an institutional cover-up, voters could well flock to the party.